A Theory of Revolution

[jinnzaman]

A revolution is likely to occur only when a society simultaneously experiences three kinds of difficulties:

1. A state financial crisis, brought on by a growing imbalance between the revenues a government can securely raise and the obligations and tasks it faces.
2. Severe elite divisions, including both alienation from the state and intra-elite conflicts, brought on by increasing insecurity and competition for elite positions
3. High potential for mobilizing popular groups, brought on by rising grievances (e.g., regarding high rents or low wages) and social patterns that assist or predispose popular groups to action (e.g. large numbers of youth in the population, increasingly autonomous rural villages, growing concentrations of workers in weakly administered cities.

The conjuncture of these three conditions generally produces a fourth difficulty: an increase in the salience of heterodox cultural and religious ideas; heterodox groups then provide both leadership and an organizational focus for opposition to the state.”

(p xxiii - xxiv of “Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World” by Jack Goldstone)

Based on this model, is it plausible to believe that state collapse, rebellion, revolution, civil war, or foreign wars will happen in the following Muslim countries: Pakistan, Egypt, Palestine, Turkey, Iran, and possibly Nigeria if the global economic crisis worsens.

Any other states?

A Theory of Revolution | Global Intifada

[Shahnawaz]

I would suggest a book called 'Anatomy of Revolution', by C. Brinton for a in-depth look at this issue. Its very interesting to find out the striking similarites in the societies that expierienced revolution just prior to it.

[dreamdeferred]

Thanks for the book recommendations guys......my reading list has gotten a little unmanageable since joining this site.

I would add China to the list. I've read some material that suggested that while the number of people living a middle class lifestyle has boomed in proportion to the country's economic success.....China's income gap is widening at an alarming pace. The urban/rural divide poses a serious threat to the country's stability.....it won't be long until the majority demands a piece of the pie.

Where will the next revolution pop off? Who knows?

One thing I know for sure.....

YouTube - The Revolution Will Not Be Televised: Gil Scott Heron

I had to get Gil-Scott Heron in here somehow

[jinnzaman]

well, one thing about China is that their managing the world food, fuel, and inflation crisis very well.

[dreamdeferred]

jinnzaman said

well, one thing about China is that their managing the world food, fuel, and inflation crisis very well.

YouTube - china crisis - wishful thinking



nah.....I'm playing, I just saw an opportunity to post a horrible but appropriately titled song as a response.

[Sugarberry]

jinnzaman said

A revolution is likely to occur only when a society simultaneously experiences three kinds of difficulties:

1. A state financial crisis, brought on by a growing imbalance between the revenues a government can securely raise and the obligations and tasks it faces.
2. Severe elite divisions, including both alienation from the state and intra-elite conflicts, brought on by increasing insecurity and competition for elite positions
3. High potential for mobilizing popular groups, brought on by rising grievances (e.g., regarding high rents or low wages) and social patterns that assist or predispose popular groups to action (e.g. large numbers of youth in the population, increasingly autonomous rural villages, growing concentrations of workers in weakly administered cities.

The conjuncture of these three conditions generally produces a fourth difficulty: an increase in the salience of heterodox cultural and religious ideas; heterodox groups then provide both leadership and an organizational focus for opposition to the state.”

(p xxiii - xxiv of “Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World” by Jack Goldstone)

Based on this model, is it plausible to believe that state collapse, rebellion, revolution, civil war, or foreign wars will happen in the following Muslim countries: Pakistan, Egypt, Palestine, Turkey, Iran, and possibly Nigeria if the global economic crisis worsens.

Any other states?

A Theory of Revolution | Global Intifada

Intresting, why do you say turkey?

[jinnzaman]

Sugarberry said

Intresting, why do you say turkey?

Two of the three factors are currently present:

2. Severe elite divisions, including both alienation from the state and intra-elite conflicts, brought on by increasing insecurity and competition for elite positions

3. High potential for mobilizing popular groups, brought on by rising grievances (e.g., regarding high rents or low wages) and social patterns that assist or predispose popular groups to action (e.g. large numbers of youth in the population, increasingly autonomous rural villages, growing concentrations of workers in weakly administered cities.

The secularists are feeling disenfranchised right now but also have popular networks within the urban areas. If the financial situation in Turkey dips (as it probably will due the global economic slide) then the situation could be unruly. The secularists will probably take advantage of the situation and force themselves into power through a military coup, but since the Islamists have become so entrenched, its possible that a violent response might take place.

The current international system only really exists due to Western military interference and economic growth. Once economic growth dissipates, since the entire global economic system will go through increased volatility over the next thirty years or so and then probably balance out after that, its plausible to see major state collapse throughout the Muslim world.

If America can successfully contain the Iraqi insurgency, it'll probably assist all of the movements that favor liberal democratic capitalism through intelligence, logistics, missile attacks, or even direct intervention.

Its truly a miracle that Egypt hasn't had a revolution yet.

[MossadConspiracy]

jinnzaman said

Its truly a miracle that Egypt hasn't had a revolution yet.

Egypt did have a revolution (and several attempted revolutions)