[GOTFIVEONIT]

Iowa residents register for the caucus at Merrill Middle School in Des Moines



Iowans will have to bundle up before they head out to the caucuses tonight.

updated 1 minute ago

Obama, Huckabee win Iowa caucuses, CNN projects

DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) -- Barack Obama will win the Iowa Democratic caucus and Mike Huckabee will be the Republican winner, CNN projects, based on early results.

With 65 percent of Republican precincts reporting, Huckabee had the support of 34 percent of voters, compared to 25 percent for Mitt Romney. Fred Thompson had 14 percent and John McCain had 13.

Rudy Giuliani, who has turned the focus of his campaign to the February 5 "Super Tuesday" primaries, trailed with 4 percent.

Huckabee's victory can be attributed to his overwhelming support among evangelical voters and women, according to CNN analysis of entrance polls.

Polls taken as Iowans entered the first-in-the-nation caucuses show a tight race for both parties.

With such a close race on both sides, voter turnout is key.

Caucus-goer Kathy Barger, inside a Democratic caucus site in Walnut, Iowa, said the room she is in is packed to the brim with a line out the door.

"I don't know how they are going to be able to fit everybody in the room, much less count the votes," she said. "There are bodies in every available space in the room."

The White House hopefuls were campaigning down to the wire in Iowa today, determined to reach as many people as possible before the 1,781 caucuses that started at 7 p.m.

Every supporter is critical in this contest, which historically produces very low turnout. The Iowa Democratic Party said 124,000 people participated in the 2004 caucuses, while the Republican Party of Iowa estimated that 87,000 people took part in the 2000 caucuses. (President Bush ran unchallenged for a second term in 2004.) See your pictures of the candidates in Iowa »

Iowa Democrats, unlike Republicans, use a more complicated system to determine a candidate's viability. Republican caucus-goers are asked for their support for a candidate only one time during the event. Democrats are asked twice: an initial question of support, and a second if their first choice candidate does not reach a 15 percent threshold to achieve viability.

Huckabee has been vastly outspent by Romney, who poured millions of dollars into a sophisticated get-out-the-vote operation. Nevertheless, Huckabee told supporters in Burlington during a last-minute rally that they could send "an important message" Thursday night.

"With the eyes of the world on Iowa, imagine what it's going to be like when they tune into places like Burlington, Waterloo, Des Moines, Dubuque, Sioux City, and they find out that caucus-goers here in Iowa can't be bought, that they can't even be rented, that they'll make up their own minds and they'll make it up for what they stand for," he said.

For most of 2007, Huckabee languished in the single digits in the polls and had very little success raising money. But his momentum really picked up in the final six weeks of the year when social conservatives -- an important voting bloc in Iowa -- began to move his way.

Meanwhile, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee and Rep. Duncan Hunter of California will likely need strong showings in Iowa to keep their campaigns going, while Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is likely to ride his surge of popularity through February 5 -- "Super Tuesday," when 24 states hold their primaries -- no matter where he places in the early contests.

Speaking to CNN Thursday, Thompson brushed off speculation that he would drop out of the race if he didn't finish better than third in the caucuses. Watch Thompson say personal ambition is bad »

On the Democratic side, Clinton, a New York senator, and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, are battling Obama, a senator from Illinois, for their party's nomination in a contest that has come down to two main themes: change and experience.

Clinton is working to convince Iowa caucus-goers she has the experience to enact change, while Edwards and Obama preach that she is too much of a Washington insider to bring change to the nation's capital.

If Obama wins Thursday night, Clinton would lose the sense of inevitability she has as the national front-runner. New Hampshire polls showing Clinton tied with Obama could grow more troublesome.

But if Clinton loses to Edwards in Iowa, it could produce an Edwards-Obama showdown to be the "non-Clinton" candidate.

Obama, whose campaign was organizing babysitters for potential caucus-goers, said he was expecting a high turnout.

"We've seen these enormous crowds as we travel across the state in this last week, and the weather's been brutal, so for these folks to be coming out just to hear a candidate at the last minute, it's doubtful they're not going to go to caucus," he said Thursday.

Edwards -- who placed second in the 2004 caucuses -- swore off sleep to hold a 36-hour marathon. Watch Edwards call for an investigation of oil prices »

Democratic hopeful Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico said he was feeling good in the final hours.

"You know, I think a lot of the undecideds are breaking my way. Iowans make up their minds at the last minute, maybe 30 percent of them in the last three to four days, and I'm seeing good movement," he said. Watch Richardson call for a 50 mpg fuel standard »

The second tier of Democratic candidates -- Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd, and Richardson -- will all need strong showings in Iowa or risk a fatal blow to their campaigns.

[GOTFIVEONIT]

for people who dont know how the american political process works, or what all this means, please allow me to explain. this is the party elections that are being conducted within the united states, for the party nomation for president of the united states, in the national elections that will be held on the first tuesday of november, as the constitution mandates. unlike in parliamentary democracies, such as what you have in the u.k., here in the united states, anyone can vote in the party elections for the nominations vs. the party choosing thier leader, as what occures in the u.k. so each state holds party elections, some on different days, some on the same days. the states, such as home state of IL, which holds it on the same day, that is called 'super tuesday' and will be held in febuary. The Iowa 'caucases' are conducted first in janaury, and why it is important, is because in the days to come, the big losers will start to drop out of the campaign. four years ago, john kerry made a surprise win in iowa, and since nobody knew who the other candidates were, he surged on to win every other primary (party elections) in every other state. Now Barak Obama won the iowa caucases, with the New Hampshire state primaries (party elections) up next week. another important state.

now what does this mean to the national election in november? the way the elections work, is that you must win the majority of the popular vote in each state and you win ALL the electoral votes for that state in the electoral college. now similar to a parliamentary election, you need two-thirds or 270 electoral votes, to win the presidency.

how can the democrats win in november? most southern states vote republican, and are therefore red states. so basically in the end it will all come down to OHIO! OHIO, OHIO, OHIO! this state will be THE battleground state in 2008, as it was in 2004. The war in iraq, and the economy will dominate this year's elections, and thats bad news for repugs. however, i want to say if barak obama does eventually win the party domination, he has his work cut out for him. i think he could do very well in ohio, as he proved here in IL, and as he proved in Iowa. but a black man has never been the main candidate for any of the parties. Not only that, no senator has ever won an election since 1960, john f. kennedy. The reason why, is because thier votes come back to haunt them. its a major reason why state governers usually win. However Obama is a first term senator, and never voted in debate for the Iraq war. Another thing, generally for a democrate to win, he usually has to be a southerner. the last three democratic presidents were all southerners, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. For a Democrat to win the presidency, he MUST pick off two or three southern states away from the repugs. However, given the large hispanic populations in the south-west states of arizona, texas, utah, etc. the democrats are hoping to make them blue states, and win on that account. But if Obama does become the nominee for the democrats, he could pull of what he did here in IL, that is, split the southern white vote, and capture all the african-american votes in the south, where most african-americans live, and pull of a win in several southern states to become president. Having said that, it will all come down to OHIO. OHIO OHIO OHIO! no president has won an election without winning ohio!

[GOTFIVEONIT]

and i want to repeat that, no president since john f. kennedy, who lost ohio in the 1960 elections, has won an election without winning OHIO.

[FMROMMEL]

Originally Posted by GOTFIVEONIT

now what does this mean to the national election in november? the way the elections work, is that you must win the majority of the popular vote in each state and you win ALL the electoral votes for that state in the electoral college. now similar to a parliamentary election, you need two-thirds or 270 electoral votes, to win the presidency.
.

That is not totally true. The states decide how they will portion out the delegates. There are a few states that don't do winner takes all.

As for the theory of Obama winning, if he is too liberal he will not win the hispanic vote and will not win the independent voters. If the Republican canididate is too conservative he will not win either.......it will all come down to who is closer to the center.

[shadha]

It's be so dumb to have a President Huckabee. Like what the hell? I admit, I don't care what his views are, I won't vote for him because of his last name.


shadha-

[Good_ol_JR]

^ Funny you say that cause a lot of people won't vote for Obama cuz of his last name. But I don't see Huckabee getting the nomination; his support base is conservative Christians/evangelicals which are HUGE In Iowa and other Mid West boonies. But in California and the East Coast I don't see him winning at all and thats where all the electoral votes are at. Romney will probably win in New Hampshire; not too many evangelicals there.

I personally won't pay any attention unless Ron Paul becomes a contender; everyone else is catering to the same audience: wealthy interest groups which include AIPAC

[GOTFIVEONIT]

Originally Posted by FMROMMEL

That is not totally true. The states decide how they will portion out the delegates. There are a few states that don't do winner takes all.

As for the theory of Obama winning, if he is too liberal he will not win the hispanic vote and will not win the independent voters. If the Republican canididate is too conservative he will not win either.......it will all come down to who is closer to the center.

and which states would that be? alaska? vermont? i mean your talking about states that have like one electoral vote here.

and of course everyone knows you have to move to the center if you want to win an election. but obama did fantastic tonite with the independent voters who came out to the democratic caucasous in iowa tonite. he got 40% of thier votes. and i have been watching his career here ever since he first ran for senator in an open seat here in IL.

and no the christian evangalicals are not found in the midwest, except for maybe southern ohio, they are found in the south, the republican heartland.

[FMROMMEL]

Originally Posted by GOTFIVEONIT

and which states would that be? alaska? vermont? i mean your talking about states that have like one electoral vote here.

and of course everyone knows you have to move to the center if you want to win an election. but obama did fantastic tonite with the independent voters who came out to the democratic caucasous in iowa tonite. he got 40% of thier votes. and i have been watching his career here ever since he first ran for senator in an open seat here in IL.

and no the christian evangalicals are not found in the midwest, except for maybe southern ohio, they are found in the south, the republican heartland.

Seeing how the last election was very close any extra delegates may count.I think there are 4-5 states that are not winner takes all.

Lets see in the last 4 primaries how many of the Iowa winners won thier parties nomination?

[Sabz]

YAY OBAMA WON! yay finally maybe a black president! Im so glad Huckabee didnt win! (yes i dont live in USA but c'mon the USA president decisions affect everyone) Plus i cant see him controlling Brown!

Walaikum as salaam
Sabz

[slime]

the electoral college sucks.

how did ron paul do?

[FMROMMEL]

Originally Posted by Sabz

YAY OBAMA WON! yay finally maybe a black president! Im so glad Huckabee didnt win! (yes i dont live in USA but c'mon the USA president decisions affect everyone) Plus i cant see him controlling Brown!

Walaikum as salaam
Sabz

Huckabee did win?

[Jamroll]

Thanks for breaking it down for us, GotFive.

What I don't understand is, why Clinton and Edwards are badmouthing Obama. Don't they belong to the same party?

Here in the UK, it's very rare that politicians would talk out against another fellow party member, even when they're running against them, such as in a leadership contest.

How can they (the Democrats in this case) function as a team after they've been trash-talking each other through the whole campaign?

[sixpakistan]

Originally Posted by slime

the electoral college sucks.

how did ron paul do?

he got 11%

[Macaca]

Originally Posted by Sabz

YAY OBAMA WON! yay finally maybe a black president! Im so glad Huckabee didnt win! (yes i dont live in USA but c'mon the USA president decisions affect everyone) Plus i cant see him controlling Brown!

Walaikum as salaam
Sabz

It's a strange world; everyone lives in America's shadow. I turn on CBC Canadian News (im in a border-state) and they talk about American weather,lol.


I don't want Obama to win-just look at the way he answers the 'are you a muslim?' question.

[FMROMMEL]

Originally Posted by Macaca

It's a strange world; everyone lives in America's shadow. I turn on CBC Canadian News (im in a border-state) and they talk about American weather,lol.


I don't want Obama to win-just look at the way he answers the 'are you a muslim?' question.

Well, you have no say in the matter anyway.