[GOTFIVEONIT]

Nevada: (5) The Democrats, on the lobbying of Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid and DNC Chairman Howard Dean changed the primary date to make it compatible with New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina. Even though Nevada has tended to vote for the Republicans, the high concentration of labor unions and Hispanic-American vote make it a potential battleground state. The 2006 Gubernatorial election was a competitive one, where Republican Jim Gibbons won by a slim margin; when the state has tended to support them. For Democrats, the Las Vegas metropolitan area and its exponential population increase are making it a Democratic attraction, and they are buoyed by the strong disapproval ratings of Gibbons (29 percent approval rating as of March 2007) and Bush (34 percent approval rating as of March 2007).[72] In addition, Nevada has been won by the victor of every US Presidential election since 1912, with the single exception of 1976.

New Hampshire: (4) Once very reliably Republican, New Hampshire became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections is harder to determine. New Hampshire was the only state in the nation that went for Bush in 2000 and then for Kerry in 2004, although by narrow margins both times.

New Mexico: (5) New Mexico has been long eschewed as a nominal state, but that thinking has changed dramatically. With elections being heavily contested and victories being decided by two or three states, New Mexico has become one of the centers of political fighting. In 2000, Gore won by a razor-thin margin and in 2004, Bush won by a small, yet safe margin. These results have made experts conclude that New Mexico's five electoral votes, even though small in calculation, could make significant splashing and benefit the challenger who might lag behind in big states such as Ohio and Florida. New Mexico's large Hispanic and Native American populations tend to vote Democrat, and could be the key for a Democratic candidate in a close race. Its penchant for populist streaks have made it an attraction for the Democrats, with Gov. Bill Richardson joining the crowd for the Democratic nomination, based on the calculation that Democrats need to win such Western states to advance their path towards succeeding Bush.

Ohio: (20) "I think 2008 is very likely to be a hotly contested race in Ohio," stated Eric Rademacher, director of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, for the Cincinnati Enquirer.[73] Its 20 electoral votes were critical to President Bush's reelection in 2004. In 2006, however, Ohio voters elected Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown for Governor and U.S. Senator, respectively.

Oregon: (7) A Democratic-leaning state, with generally strong beliefs in civil liberties and liberal ideology on social issues. The state has gone to the Democrats from the 1988 election onward.

Pennsylvania: (21) Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Pedro A. Cortés stated on March 17, 2007, that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and diverse population make Pennsylvania a key battleground state." [74] Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral votes to Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Gore (2000) and Kerry (2004). President Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004 campaign.[75]

Tennessee: (11) Tennessee was not expected to be competitive in 2008, but recent polls have shown that Democrats could be very competitive in the state. A recent Rasmussen poll had Clinton narrowly edging Giuliani and Romney.[76] And while Tennessee did go to Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, it has not been kind to Democrats in recent cycles. It went against native son Al Gore in 2000; if Gore had won the state, he would have emerged the victor. Tennessee joins other Southern states like Kentucky that have not been competitive in recent memory, but in which Democrats find themselves surprisingly competitive.

Virginia: (13) No Democratic presidential candidate has won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, and it was the only Southern state that went Republican in 1976. Virginia is no longer as reliably Republican as it once was, as evidenced by Democrat Tim Kaine's victory in 2005 for the Governor's Mansion and Jim Webb's narrow victory in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent Republican George Allen. Additionally, Northern Virginia, the fastest-growing region in the state, tends to lean Democratic. On September 13, 2007, former Virginia governor and Democrat Mark Warner informally announced he will run for the Senate in 2008 for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner. This notion is supported by a September 2007 Rasmussen Reports poll in which Mark Warner leads former Republican governor Jim Gilmore 54% to 34% and Republican Congressman Tom Davis 57% to 30%.

West Virginia: (5) Although registered Democrats in the state outnumber registered Republicans, Bush narrowly won the state in both the 2000 and 2004 elections with 52% and 56% of the vote respectively. President Clinton won the state in both 1992 and 1996.
Wisconsin: (10) Among the closest states in the nation, Wisconsin very narrowly went to Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. These two results were much closer than the results in prior elections, so it could be possible Wisconsin is trending Republican in presidential elections, though John Kerry won by a slightly larger margin than Gore in 2000.

The potential battleground states listed above control a total of 207 electoral votes. Of the states that are not expected to be competitive, 142 electoral votes (Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming) are currently expected to go to the Republican party, while 183 (California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington) are expected to go to the Democrats. Any of these may become competitive as the election progresses.