Potential battleground states (purple). Numbers reflect the amount of electoral votes each state holds. Likely Republican states are red, likely Democratic states are blue
Potential battleground states
Pundits and political experts have identified certain battleground states whose close votes may be crucial to the election. These states include, but may not be limited to:
Electoral College votes in parentheses
Arkansas: (6) Although a conservative state in the heart of the Bible Belt, the Democratic Party is a powerful force in Arkansas and Democrats tend to have a comfortable advantage in statewide races. Presently, the Governor, both U.S. Senators, and three out of four of the Arkansas' House members are Democrats, and Democrats control the state legislature by a large margin. The Arkansas Democratic Party tends to be more conservative than the national party, however, and as a result voters there tend to be open to Republican Presidential candidates. Though favorite son Bill Clinton won Arkansas easily both times he ran, Arkansas gave their electoral votes to Bush in 2000 and 2004 by a fairly large margin. Arkansas has a large African American population, which could favor the Democratic candidate.
Colorado: (9) The "Centennial State" is holding its second Democratic National Convention in Denver after 100 years. The election of Ken Salazar, a Hispanic-American to the U.S. Senate; Bill Ritter to the Governorship in 2006 and a U.S. House seat pick-up in 2006 made it a prized apple for the Democrats, prompting DNC Chairman Howard Dean to claim that the West holds the key to victory in 2008, which effectively made Denver the location of the Convention. Strong Hispanic-American concentration and the attention of issues such as immigration reform, labor union support and minimum wage have made this a possible Democratic state. However, Republicans still claim their title on this state because of their support of gun rights and their stance on social conservative issues, and pundits have put Colorado as the initial favorite for the Republicans.
Florida: (27) The key player in 2000, whose votes went, controversially, to George W. Bush, making him the effective winner. Florida is situated in the South, which has become a Republican stronghold. Experts agree that the winner of Florida will have a significant advantage towards advancing to the White House. Florida has trended toward the Republican Party since 2000. For Democrats, the vote of the elderly is seen as a potential boon, due to the party's traditional stance on Medicare and Social Security, two key components of winning the elderly vote, in addition to tax cuts and values issues. The Hispanic and African American population's in Florida could also give the Democrats an edge in a close race. As for Republicans, the business attention of tax cuts and Cuban-American attention has made it a strong contender. Also, Florida's recently-elected governor, Republican Charlie Crist, has enjoyed high approval ratings and has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential nominee on the 2008 GOP ticket.
Indiana: (11) Traditionally a Republican stronghold but in 2006, Democrats won three house seats here. Another factor that may drag down the Republican Ticket might be Governor Mitch Daniels, who has become very unpopular in the state. Also in 2006, Democrats gained control of State House. The state hasn't voted for a Democratic Presidential Nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, but a poll out by the Indianapolis Star, features a generic Democrat leading a generic Republican in the Presidential election 37%-32%.[71] The poll shows the War in Iraq and the sluggish economy to be the biggest issues among Hoosiers. Also, the poll found that a Democratic Ticket featuring Indiana Senator Evan Bayh would boost the possibility of Indiana switching alliances.
Iowa: (7) The first in the nation caucus is also first in the list for those who want to ensure their victory in the "Hawkeye State". Iowa has been a true battleground state, in the sense that it went for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004; but, both times, the margin of victory was small, making it a pivotal destination. In 2006, Democrats retained control of the Governor's Mansion with the election of Chet Culver and the addition of two U.S. House seats. Also, for the first time in four decades, Democrats gained complete control of the state legislature, further enhancing the progress of the Democrats. Still, agriculture policies and conservative values make it a magnet for the Republicans.
Kentucky: (8) With a Democratic pick-up of the Governor's Mansion in November 2007, and a troubled State Republican Party, Kentucky a state that will be in play. Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher was defeated for re-election on November 6, 2007, and Senators Mitch McConnell and Jim Bunning's approval have dropped recently. McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, is up for re-election in 2008. Although it went to the Republicans in 2000 and 2004 by strong margins, it was previously won by Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Pundits have put Kentucky in the Republican column.
Michigan: (17) The "Great Lakes State" has been a safe bet for the Democrats for a long time, giving its 17 electoral votes to Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry. However, with each election, the margin of victory has diluted, shifting it from the "safe" category to the "leaning" category for the Democrats, opening a window for the Republicans. Populist issues have dominated the state and made it a natural attraction for the Democrats, but Republicans have gained ground in advancing tax cuts and other social issues, following the "Reagan Democrat" movement. One point of contention is the recent landslide re-election victory for the Democratic governor Jennifer Granholm, who carries many Michiganders' blame of its declining economic situation. But still, pundits agree that even though the Democratic proclivity is high, there remains a significant vacuum that could be filled by the Republicans.
Minnesota: (10) Minnesota has been a traditional Democratic state in recent decades, but in the past two presidential elections, the elections have been competitive between the GOP and Democratic candidates. The 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate election is also stated to be competitive, with Republican Norm Coleman running for re-election and commentator Al Franken actively seeking the Democratic nomination. The Republicans are holding their National Convention in Saint Paul hoping to sway the election toward Republicans this time. The last Republican presidential candidate to win in Minnesota was President Richard Nixon in 1972; since then, it has generally been solid ground for the Democrats. But in 2000 and 2004, the margin of victory was small, encouraging multiple visits by candidates in both parties. In 2006, however, the DFL picked up a house seat and gained 19 legislative seats and six state senate seats.
Missouri: (11) The "Show Me State" has been dubbed as the bellwether for the nation, determining the mood of the nation for a long time. It is the state who has determined the most winners for the Presidency. The home of President Harry Truman leans slightly Republican, granting its 11 electoral votes to Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Despite the relative strength of Republicans in this Midwestern state, it has a strong penchant for advancing populist causes, such as stem cell research and universal health coverage. In 2006, Missouri elected its first female U.S. Senator in Claire McCaskill. Continuing on that trend, the national mood souring over the war in Iraq makes this a strong contender for the Democrats.