[psychoteddybear]

The accumulation of divisive issues has weakened Muse's administration and his hold on his machine, generating conflict that has played out in unprecedented parliamentary assertiveness and direct action in the streets. The interrelated yet cross-cutting pressures on Muse have forced him into a defensive posture, rendering Puntland's political future uncertain.

Muse Retreats Under Political Fire

By the end of May, opposition to Muse's policies, his authoritarian style of governing and -- as Dr. Abdeweli M. Ali precisely put it -- "performance failure" had mounted in Puntland's political class. Two months earlier, Somaliland forces had made a probe into the Sanaag region and had reportedly withdrawn only after Darod troops among the invaders defected and joined the Puntland militias. The incident showed Puntland's military vulnerability, despite its outcome. Resistance among Puntland's legislators to Muse's treatment of parliament had also been growing and was about to break out into open conflict.

At the end of May, Muse was in Bossasso trying to deal with rising crime, disaffected businessmen and piracy, and had delayed his return to Garowe, leaving Vice President Hassan Dahir Afqura to fend off questions from legislators on the salary arrears of civil servants and security forces.

On May 27, Afqura met with Puntland's parliamentary speaker, Ahmed Ali Hashi, and told him that Muse would not come to parliament to answer questions because only a "complete parliament" could legally compel his presence. As the meeting between Afqura and Hashi was going on, Muse was finalizing the livestock export deal with al-Jabberi, leading to further opposition from legislators under the pressure of local businessmen.

Muse returned to Garowe on June 5 and, on June 13, failed to show up at parliament to answer questions about security, the economy and his alleged overriding of laws. On the same day, he fired the governor of the Nugal region, Abdullahi Isse, who had reportedly leagued with the parliamentary dissenters. On June 14, Muse made his ill-fated attempt to freeze the value of the Somali shilling and, on June 16, he assumed direct control over Puntland's security forces, a move that baffled observers, since Puntland's constitution stipulates that the president is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Muse also remained steadfast in his rejection of a question session in parliament.

That Muse's initiatives and responses were defensive is evidenced by his delay of an expected cabinet reshuffle meant to consolidate his control over his administration. Local media attributed the delay to the resistance of powerful ministers and pressure from Yusuf who feared that a shake-up would increase instability.

On June 17, Muse gave his keynote address to parliament, focusing on health, education and economic development. Hashi replied to Muse's speech with an alternative agenda, including irregularities in the budget, consideration of agreements with foreign companies and the transition from a non-party to a multi-party political system. The stage was set for confrontation.

The slide toward instability became steeper on June 19, when the mayor of Bossasso, Khadar Haji Mire, was hit by a vote of no confidence of 19-0-2 from the city's district council, which accused him of abuses of power and of selling off public land. Refusing to accept the decision, Mire showed up at the mayor's office with two battlewagons and 30 militiamen. Muse reacted quickly, declaring the council's action illegal because neither the mayor nor an official from the Ministry of Local Government was present at the vote.

On June 21, Muse attempted to deflect growing dissent by accusing the political opposition to the T.F.G., which is based in Eritrea, of trying to undermine his administration, blaming "the Asmara group" for the Somaliland raid into Sanaag and for the district council's action against Mire, claiming that the council members had been bribed by the opposition.

Thrown into a defensive posture and bowing to pressure, Muse, accompanied by several of his cabinet ministers, acquiesced in a question session in parliament on June 24. Amid questioning on the export of natural stones and the counterfeiting of Somali shillings, the proceedings broke down into acrimony and Hashi brought them to a close before legislators had a chance to put forward all of their concerns. Local media noted that the wave of dissent was unprecedented in the history of Puntland's normally acquiescent parliament.

On June 27, another round of questioning cut deeper into Muse's performance. Legislators demanded explanations for why government workers went unpaid when the budget had been increased by 12 percent, complaining that they had been given no accounting of how funds had been spent. Muse reportedly left the session in anger.

The looming confrontation erupted on July 4, when -- on a vote of 25-16-6 -- parliament sent back the administration's 2006 budget review to Muse without approving it, citing "discrepancies" in which some agencies -- the presidency and the Ministry of Finance -- had been given more funds than parliament had allocated to them, and others -- the security forces, the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Interior -- had been given less than had been allocated.