Quote:
Sugarberry said
Intresting, why do you say turkey?
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Two of the three factors are currently present:
2.
Severe elite divisions, including both alienation from the state and intra-elite conflicts, brought on by increasing insecurity and competition for elite positions
3.
High potential for mobilizing popular groups, brought on by rising grievances (e.g., regarding high rents or low wages) and social patterns that assist or predispose popular groups to action (e.g. large numbers of youth in the population, increasingly autonomous rural villages, growing concentrations of workers in weakly administered cities.
The secularists are feeling disenfranchised right now but also have popular networks within the urban areas. If the financial situation in Turkey dips (as it probably will due the global economic slide) then the situation could be unruly. The secularists will probably take advantage of the situation and force themselves into power through a military coup, but since the Islamists have become so entrenched, its possible that a violent response might take place.
The current international system only really exists due to Western military interference and economic growth. Once economic growth dissipates, since the entire global economic system will go through increased volatility over the next thirty years or so and then probably balance out after that, its plausible to see major state collapse throughout the Muslim world.
If America can successfully contain the Iraqi insurgency, it'll probably assist all of the movements that favor liberal democratic capitalism through intelligence, logistics, missile attacks, or even direct intervention.
Its truly a miracle that Egypt hasn't had a revolution yet.