[LEGALEAGLE]

Originally Posted by TrentReznor858

I love how all these complicated theories are being put forth by armchair quarterbacks, giving wild and lengthy explanations when the people actually fighting dont even know the meaning of the term "demographic shift."

you mean the resident Kristols, Wolfowitz's etc of Islamica....

Originally Posted by Haramoobobi

inna lilla wa inna lillahi rajioon...
I seriously can't believe people believe in Hezbollah propaganda... Lebanon, which is the most liberal state in the Middle East, because of its sectarian government, I believe is presently at a crossroads that may influence the future of the whole Middle East. This is true because its government, based on the confessionalism, is a government that is the most diverse and that gives its people the greatest representation. But, as a result, it is also the weakest point of the government because it tends to be fragmented and divided on issues. Because of the diverse interests and points of view of its government members, it is often unable to unify on any major issue. As a result, the confessional government is both a source of great strength as well as great weakness in Lebanon.
There are other factors that add to the weakness of Lebanon. The fact that armed militia groups such as Hezbollah and foreign countries, such as Syria, occupy and influence the government, has greatly undermined the strength of the confessional government. Hezbollah stood off the call for surrender of arms. This was partly because it had the backing of Syria and Iran as well as the Shiite population in Lebanon, which is a group that did not integrate well into Lebanese liberalism. Additionally, they claimed the impending threat of Israel as another reason to hold onto their arms.
But how can fair and peaceful talks occur when one side has arms (namely Hezbollah) and the other is armless (namely the middle class that supports civil society)?!?!
Hezbollah, by its nature, undermines the goals of the Lebanese government. It is a group that is violent, supported by Syrian and Iranian interests and the interests of the Lebanese Shiites, who are not integrating well into the liberal society that Lebanon wishes to further develop. One major problem is that Hezbollah is not clearly seen by the world for what it really is. Even in the West, there is a tendency to view this group as a regional ‘Robin Hood’—so don’t believe this haramoobobi-ness. Hezbollah is just helping to further alienate the Shia population.
I really hope the best for Lebanon, if anything were to happen—like being invaded by Syria—I doubt the world would bat an eyelash.
Seems like my maronite friend is going to be stuck in Paris for some time

May Allah swt help your Maronite friend

Originally Posted by AmroodWaala

The theories are based on analysis of past & present, books written on the topic, opinions of journalists, interviews by politicians, etc.

While it's true that gunmen in the streets may have little sense of such things, but behind those gunmen are writers, think-tanks, and 'armchair quarterbacks' with their own advisers. Pretty much true with every organization/institution.

e.g. I doubt a typical US soldier has even heard about AEI or knows the extent to which his active military life is dictated by the strategies proposed by 'armchair quarterbacks' in such organizations.

ditto.