Quote:
Originally Posted by IbnMardhiyah
Okay. So in other words ... no real experience at all.
- JP did his math and it gave him a 3.5 billion payday.
- Simons over at Renaissance does his math every year and it gives him a $1 billion payday.
- People at Vanguard do their math and that's why their performance out-paces the benchmarks by as much as 5:1
- One of my brothers-in-law is a director at the insurance division of a major Canadian bank, and is an actuary by education and profession. He does his math daily and that's how he protects the bank from risk and simultaneously preserves some extremely healthy margins.
Clearly, in the real-life, real-world, hands-on experience of these people and many others, "doing the math" definitely pays off very nicely.
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I dont need to actually study math to know how trading is successful.
With every example of JP and Simons and Vanguard, brother in law you give, there are countless of others, smarter, better at math, people with doctorates in physics and math crunching numbers daily trying to ween out arbitrage opportunities.
I am sure amongst the 15000+ employees at Bear, there must have been countless of mathematicians, from Caltech, MIT, Columbia... even they failed to predict the outcome or even control the risk.
Honestly, I cant understand how you are even arguing about this, when you yourself started this thread, a glaring example of how trading is just a random series of bets based on perceptions or views.